According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of refined petroleum coke in April continued to decline. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in April was 1485.00 yuan/ton on April 30th, 1655.00 yuan/ton on April 1st, with a monthly decline of 10.27%.

Cost side: The crude oil market in April was volatile, and the instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. This will keep oil prices at a high level, and the resistance to a significant decline in the future is still significant. In addition, the current demand side has also shown some positive expectations, and the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand. The decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories has also provided support for oil prices.

Supply side: In April, the shutdown, maintenance, and production reduction of coking units in refineries gradually increased, resulting in a relative decrease in supply, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The sulfur content of petroleum coke in some refineries has changed, and the price of petroleum coke fluctuates with the increase of sulfur content; The overall low level of petroleum coke storage in the refinery; There are relatively few newly arrived resources of imported petroleum coke, and in addition, the delivery speed of petroleum coke from various ports has been relatively fast recently, resulting in a decrease in the storage of petroleum coke in the port.

On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly decreased in April, showing a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.36% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 15.37% from the same period last year. In April, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of stable supply and reduced demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and downstream production loss pressure gradually fed back to upstream. Under the bearish supply and demand side, the spot price of metal silicon weakened.

In April, the price of medium sulfur calcined coke remained basically stable, with most enterprises stabilizing their shipments. Market demand is expected to increase in the later stage, but currently, the demand for the negative electrode market is limited, and most enterprises mainly focus on executing preliminary orders.

In April, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose, causing aluminum factory profits to widen. With the arrival of the flood season in May, Yunnan’s resumption of production will continue to advance, and the certainty of supply increase is strong. It is expected that the upward space for aluminum prices in May will narrow. As of April 29th, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 791000 tons, and the domestic circulating electrolytic aluminum inventory was 665000 tons, which is still at the low level of nearly seven years compared to last Thursday when 16000 tons were removed from the inventory, a decrease of 62000 tons compared to the same period last year. In terms of outbound shipments, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots last week was 117800 tons, a decrease of 14000 tons compared to the previous week. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises have weak support for petroleum coke demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of domestic petroleum coke market is sufficient. With the basic completion of pre holiday replenishment in the early stage, market transactions are limited. Currently, the price of locally refined petroleum coke mainly follows the adjustment of refinery sulfur content indicators. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the local refining petroleum coke market will be the main trend, with prices mostly following changes in refinery petroleum coke shipment indicators.