1、 Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on April 16th was 13237 yuan/ton, which is a 4.04% increase compared to the average market price of 12724 yuan/ton on April 7th.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Recently, the market price of caprolactam has been continuously rising. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Maintenance of caprolactam units in some enterprises has led to a decrease in market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. As of April 16th, the weekly settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13600 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

 

Cost side

 

Raw material pure benzene market. Recently, the price of pure benzene has risen, but it has been operating in a narrow range. On April 16th, the price of pure benzene was 8707 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared to April 7th (8648 yuan/ton). The price of Sinopec pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton. The strong raw material market provides some support for the price of caprolactam.

 

Demand side

 

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Downstream PA6 market. Recently, the PA6 market has experienced a narrow range of fluctuations after rising. As of April 16th, the average reference price of PA6 in China was 14900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.53% compared to April 7th (14675 yuan/ton). At present, the demand for raw material caprolactam in PA6 slicing is stable, and replenishment is mainly based on demand.

 

Supply side

 

Recently, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance for caprolactam enterprises, leading to a continuous reduction in market supply. Although some of the early maintenance equipment has been restored, there are still plans for maintenance in the later part of this month, providing favorable support for the supply side.

 

3、 Technical analysis

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, since March 6, 2024, the 7-day moving average of caprolactam has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, there is a trend of the two moving averages moving in opposite directions. On April 15th, the 7-day moving average crossed the 30 day moving average, and the current two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. It is expected that there is a high probability of caprolactam continuing to run upwards in the short term.

 

4、 Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been relatively strong and rising recently. Cost and supply side support, with an increase in favorable factors. Technical analysis is also likely to show an upward trend. It is expected that the market for caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

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