According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of refined petroleum coke in March fluctuated widely, with an overall slight decline. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in March was 1675.00 yuan/ton on March 31, 1682.50 yuan/ton on March 1, with a monthly decline of 0.45%.

Cost side: The crude oil market rose first and then fell in March, with a relatively stable performance in the first ten days. As of March 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly, with a daily increase of nearly 3%. The main reason is that the US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. In the latter half of the year, the crude oil market experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar combined with an increase in US crude oil inventories.

Supply side: In March, the coking equipment of the refinery was gradually repaired, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The sulfur content of petroleum coke in some refineries has changed, and the price of petroleum coke fluctuates with the increase of sulfur content; Imported petroleum coke continues to arrive at the port, leading to an increase in the storage of petroleum coke in the port.

On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly decreased in March, and the overall situation is in a downward cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 31, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market is 14070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 16.70% from the same period last year. In March, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, resulting in a bearish supply and demand situation leading to a price decline. At present, the support of metallic silicon for petroleum coke is still acceptable.

In March, the overall price of medium sulfur calcined coke increased, and some negative electrode factories began to purchase calcined coke one after another. The shipment of calcined coke improved, and currently, calcined coke enterprises are operating steadily, with relatively sufficient market supply.

In March, the production of electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable. Although there is an expectation of increased production in Yunnan, downstream consumption is gradually entering the peak season, and orders continue to recover. At present, social inventory is at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the trend of accumulated inventory is tending to end. As of March 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 910000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 95000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th; Compared to March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 913000 tons, with a destocking of 3000 tons. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises have weak support for petroleum coke demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Market forecast: Currently, the coking equipment in refineries is undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The speed of port petroleum coke dredging has accelerated, but imported petroleum coke will continue to arrive at the port, and the overall storage of petroleum coke in the port will increase. Overall, it is expected that the prices of refined petroleum coke in the near future will mainly consolidate.