High level fluctuations in ethylene glycol prices in February
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The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level in February. According to data from Business Society, as of February 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the beginning of the month (February 1st) at 4656.67 yuan/ton.
On a monthly basis, the price of ethylene glycol ends the upward trend caused by the combination of overseas device news factors and continuous inventory depletion in December 2023.
Overview of February Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals
During the Spring Festival, multiple sets of oil production systems were restarted, with Yankuang resuming and Shaanxi Coal inspecting one line. After the holiday, the supply of ethylene glycol continued to rise, and the operation of the equipment rebounded. The upward trend of ethylene glycol prices in February was interrupted. From the inventory data, the seasonal accumulation effect of ethylene glycol is not significant. As of February 29th, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was 766900 tons, which is only an increase of 16000 tons compared to the 782900 tons on January 29th. The downward space for ethylene glycol prices is limited, and the long short game intensifies.
Factors affecting the price of ethylene glycol in March
Domestic supply side: A total of 2.1 million tons of coal chemical plant maintenance plan.
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Overseas imports: Imports were not high from February to March, and with the restart of overseas facilities, there is pressure for imports to rebound after April. The overseas import shipment plan for March may gradually increase, and it is expected that imports will gradually increase. However, in terms of the delivery cycle, it is mostly reflected in the middle and late stages
Downstream demand may increase overall as the textile industry fully resumes production. However, based on the centralized stocking of downstream manufacturers before the year, downstream users may mainly rely on rigid stocking in the first half of March. In the second half of the month, demand will observe the situation of new orders. Recently, the average number of terminal weaving orders is 9.52 days, a decrease of 0.22 days from last week.
Estimated price of ethylene glycol in March
In March, the overall supply of domestic ethylene glycol was tight and balanced, and there may be import replenishment in the later period. In the short term, the downward space of ethylene glycol prices is limited, with mainly horizontal fluctuations. From the trend, the price of ethylene glycol in March may be strong in the front and weak in the back.
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