Price trend

 

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4000 yuan/ton on January 1st. On December 31st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4040 yuan/ton. In 2023, the overall price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.00%. The highest value within the year is 4083 yuan/ton, and the lowest value within the year is 3687 yuan/ton.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

quotations analysis

 

The market situation of diammonium phosphate in 2023 was initially suppressed and then increased. From January to July, the market price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated and declined. The trend of raw material prices is poor, and cost support is weak. The supply of diammonium in the factory is tight, and most manufacturers have suspended orders. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. In spring, there is a shortage of corn fertilizer sales, and the market has a strong mentality of buying up rather than falling. During the off-season for fertilizer use in summer, the demand for diammonium continues to be weak, and manufacturers and distributors have lowered their prices. From August to November, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased significantly. The supply of diammonium in the market is tight, and dealers are mainly reluctant to sell. Coupled with good demand performance, the market situation is strong and rising. International market demand is following up, and prices continue to rise. In December, the market price of diammonium phosphate was weak and fell. The purchasing atmosphere in the diammonium market has weakened, downstream demand is weak, market inquiries have decreased, new transactions are limited, and many manufacturers have suspended quotations. Although there is support from pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, the support gradually weakens.

 

According to the K-bar chart of 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in diammonium phosphate in November 2023 was 4.02%. The largest decline of the year was in June, with a decline of 2.50%.

 

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

 

Capacity situation

 

The total production capacity of diammonium phosphate in 2023 was 23.94 million tons, an increase of 11.82% compared to the same period last year. This year, some companies have added production, while others have eliminated outdated equipment. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Efficient and High Value Utilization of Phosphorus Resources. The plan mentions strict control of new production capacity in industries such as ammonium phosphate and yellow phosphorus. There are still expectations for new production increases and device replacements in 2024, and it is expected that the production capacity of diammonium phosphate may show a slight upward trend in 2024.

 

Production situation

 

The total production of diammonium phosphate in 2023 was 13.8146 million tons, an increase of 2.4399 million tons from last year and a year-on-year increase of 21.45%. At the beginning of 2023, there were many export orders, and coupled with the demand for fertilizer in spring, the production of diammonium phosphate increased. With the end of the spring fertilizer season and the arrival of the off-season, market demand has weakened, and the operating load of the equipment has decreased. After the peak autumn sales season arrived, coupled with the continuous follow-up of export orders, the market supply was tight, and the operating rate of the diammonium plant increased, resulting in an increase in production. At the end of the year, demand weakened, operating rates declined again, and production decreased. With the continuous increase in domestic and international agricultural demand, it is expected that the production of diammonium phosphate will continue to increase in 2024.

 

Export situation

The total export volume of diammonium phosphate from January to November 2023 was approximately 4.6688 million tons, an increase of 1.342 million tons compared to last year and a year-on-year increase of 40.34%. The top three countries in terms of export volume in 2023 are India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The phosphorus compound fertilizer conference was held in November this year. Under the influence of policies to ensure supply and stable prices and export restrictions, it is expected that the export volume of diammonium phosphate may decrease in 2024.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Cost situation

 

The raw material phosphate ore in 2023 has seen a wide range of ups and downs, but has stabilized and ended. In 2024, on the one hand, the overall supply side of phosphate ore will remain tight, providing market support. On the other hand, the overall downstream demand will also increase. In terms of new energy, combined with the traditional downstream demand peak season, the phosphate ore market will still have an overall upward trend. However, the current market price is already at a high level. Therefore, the expected price increase in the phosphate ore market in 2024 is limited, and the market prospects are unlimited.

 

Supply situation

 

The supply of diammonium phosphate in the market will increase in 2023. With the continuous improvement of agricultural demand and production technology, it is expected that the supply of diammonium phosphate in the market will continue to increase in 2024.

 

Demand situation

 

The market demand for diammonium phosphate mainly lies in agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizer production. With the increasing demand for fertilizers in agricultural production, coupled with the rapid development of water-soluble fertilizers and high-efficiency compound fertilizers in recent years. It is expected that the demand for diammonium phosphate in the market will steadily increase in 2024.

 

summary

 

Taking into account the above factors. The price of diammonium phosphate is influenced by various factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, export conditions, policies, and peak and off seasons. At present, the price of diammonium phosphate is in a high consolidation stage. It is expected that the price of diammonium phosphate will show a slight fluctuation and decline trend in the first half of 2024, and the price may rise significantly again after the peak autumn sales season arrives. With the increase in agricultural demand, the market for diammonium phosphate will continue to operate at a high level and improve in 2024.

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