Price trend
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, most vitamin products have been on a downward trend in 2023. Taking vitamin A, vitamin C, and vitamin E as examples, the price trend in 2023 has been falling repeatedly. Large domestic and foreign factories have been forced to stop production and reduce production due to severe profit losses, and downstream industries have been sluggish for a long time. The pessimistic atmosphere on the market is shrouded, and the search for price support points has been fruitless, resulting in a decline throughout the year.
According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C in 2023 decreased from 27.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 19.33 yuan/kg at the end of the year, with a year-on-year decline of 29.27%. The largest decline occurred on December 6th, with a decline of 32.93%. Subsequently, the market situation saw a turning point and a slight rebound.
According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin A in 2023 decreased from 104.5 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 75.5 yuan/kg at the end of the year, a decrease of 27.75% for the whole year, as of the end of 2023. The vitamin A market has yet to show a stop in decline signal.
According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin E in 2023 has dropped from 82.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 64 yuan/kg at the end of the year, a decrease of 22.58% for the whole year. As of the end of 2023, the price of vitamin E has fallen to a historical low point.
Tight supply side
From the perspective of maintenance and production stoppage, the overall vitamin market supply will tighten in 2023, especially during the peak summer maintenance season when large factories undergo centralized maintenance. However, this has not effectively boosted the vitamin market. Although there have been news of price increases on the news surface, the actual transaction focus still shows a downward trend.
The demand side continues to be weak
The main downstream industries of vitamins include feed, food and beverage, cosmetics, and medicine. Feed additives account for the largest proportion of the overall demand for vitamins, and the industry generally believes that over 70% of vitamin consumption is used in this field.
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
Taking live pigs as an example, since 2021, the pig cycle has entered a downward channel, and pig breeding enterprises are facing dual pressures of declining pig prices and rising feed costs, resulting in deteriorating profitability, cash flow situation, and increased debt burden. Since 2021, the output of live pigs has increased rapidly. Although the growth rate of pig output slowed down from the end of September 2022 to 2023, the situation of overcapacity continued, and pig prices fluctuated at low levels. Since 2021, the oversupply of pig production capacity has driven pig prices into a rapid downward trend.
The export market is relatively stable
According to customs data, the export volume of vitamin A in China was 466.8 tons in November 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month on month decrease of 11.4%. The total domestic VA exports from January to November 2023 were 4543.36 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%.
According to customs data, the export volume of vitamin E in China was 7743.99 tons in November 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.41% and a month on month increase of 27.4%. From January to November 2023, China’s total export volume of vitamin E was 75900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%.
Future Market Forecast
In 2023, the vitamin market will continue to be affected by weak demand, with prices falling nearly 30%, exceeding expectations. Looking ahead to 2024, the downstream breeding industry will continue to operate with a focus on reducing production capacity. After pig prices fluctuate at a low level, there is a possibility of an upward trend in the pig cycle. The cost of breeding pigs and piglets has decreased, and the efficiency of breeding has improved. As a result, the extent of losses for pig breeding enterprises has narrowed or is expected to achieve profitability. At the same time, the market prices of vitamin A, vitamin C, and vitamin E have basically bottomed out, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices to reverse the poor performance situation. So after a period of consolidation and operation in 2024, the market for vitamins is expected to see a real rebound.
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