1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7040 yuan/ton, which is 0.56% lower than the reference average price of 7080 yuan/ton on November 20th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6883 yuan/ton, which is 6900 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on November 20th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 0.24%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has slightly decreased this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support for thermal phosphoric acid is insufficient. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, and the cost of wet process phosphoric acid still has support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, downstream purchases are made on demand, there are fewer new orders in the market, and on-site trading is poor. As of November 24th, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7400 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a steady upward trend this week, with the focus of the phosphate ore market constantly moving towards the high-end. Many domestic mining enterprises, including those in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with a cumulative increase of about 50-90 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock within the month. The supply of low-priced goods in phosphate ore yards is gradually decreasing, and the price difference between high and low prices is narrowing. As of November 24th, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is referenced around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, while the high-end price is referenced around 1150 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus continued to decline slightly, and the overall market trading situation was relatively light. Downstream discounted procurement, some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. The center of gravity of the on exchange market has slightly declined, and downstream purchases are mostly cautious, with limited new orders and a focus on demand. The market on both sides of supply and demand is relatively deadlocked, with enterprises mainly focusing on price support. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 25700-26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been weakening recently. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is poor, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the industry holds a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.