Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has stabilized, with spot prices of various brands falling and then trading sideways. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 11025 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -8.12% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The high load in the ABS industry in the early stage continued, resulting in abundant supply of goods on the site, a significant increase in inventory positions, and poor profitability of the enterprise, resulting in losses. After a week of forced load reduction, the domestic operating rate has decreased by about 6% to 80%, and the drag on the spot market by the supply side has decreased, resulting in a slight easing of supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been relatively good recently, with the acrylonitrile market operating at a high level. The price of raw materials fluctuates, and the support for acrylonitrile is still acceptable; In addition, the construction of acrylonitrile units in the early stage slightly decreased, and the supply and demand side slightly supported, resulting in a high and firm price of acrylonitrile.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market rose strongly. The external market is relatively high, and there is an export profit window in China, boosting the market atmosphere. At the same time, temporary parking facilities have been installed in both East and South China, resulting in a significant reduction in market supply due to planned maintenance. Under the boost of fundamentals, prices of major production enterprises have increased.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently increased. The international oil price is at a high level, and the pure benzene market is fluctuating and consolidating. Cost support is good. Last week, styrene production decreased, inventory decreased, and market transactions were positive. The styrene market slightly rose.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have shown low enthusiasm for stocking. The preliminary inventory needs time to digest. After the ABS price fell, a portion of the just in need inventory was released, and the demand side was mainly focused on maintaining production, which did not provide enough support to the market.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was flat with two increases, providing reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Poor demand side consumption. It is expected that the ABS market may remain weak and stable in the short term.