According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene slightly increased this week (September 11th to September 17th). On September 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8340 yuan/ton, while on September 11th, the benchmark price was 8240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21%.

Strong cost support for WTI crude oil exceeding $90 for toluene

International crude oil futures rose significantly. On September 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $90.16 per barrel, an increase of $1.64 or 1.9%. This year, WTI reached the $90 level for the first time, reaching a new high since November 2022. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.70 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 2.0%. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory.

Product oil prices continue to rise, and demand forms support for toluene

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low. As the temperature drops and summer vacation ends, there has been a certain decrease in private car travel. However, with the support of the upcoming Double Festival, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. In addition, the cost side still has support, and the gasoline market remains at a high level.

Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand. Finally, the high temperature weather gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market. The price increase in the domestic diesel market is the main factor.

Downstream PX construction continues with 7 pairs of toluene having rigid support

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external prices have risen due to the rise in crude oil. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were 1123-1125 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1148-1150 USD/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices have surged again, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have a strong demand for support for toluene. Although downstream gas purchases may be slightly insufficient as toluene prices rise, supplier prices are firm. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will operate at a high level in the short term.