Price trend
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In early September, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14875 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.76% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region have been fluctuating and consolidating recently. There is a downward trend in the price of raw material methanol, but formaldehyde did not keep up with the increase in methanol in the early stage, and the price is still at a low level. The downward trend is not obvious this time, and the market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers ship normally, and the market fluctuation is not significant.
On the supply side:
Due to frequent maintenance, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has continued to decline recently, and the industry load has decreased to around 77%. In terms of supply, current inventory continues to be low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, even experiencing negative inventory oversold. However, some production capacity is expected to return to work in the near future, and POM supply support remains generally strong.
| PVA 0599 (PVA BF05) |
In terms of demand:
At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and they are stimulated by the tight supply of goods. In the early stage, the enthusiasm of enterprises to stock up is still good, and the transaction position of orders is high. However, due to the decrease in price acceptance after the rise of POM recently, the trading situation on the market has weakened. Overall, the level of spot price support for POM on the demand side has declined.
Future Market Forecast
The POM market continued to rise in early September. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is still declining, and the shortage of goods on site is worsening. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is maintained, and market chasing operations are reduced. Downstream users are gradually resisting high priced sources of goods. Some traders have flexible profit margins for shipping, dragging the average price level. Although there is strong short-term supply side benefits, it is expected that the POM market may enter a volatile consolidation market in the future.
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