According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of toluene has stabilized in a narrow range this week (8.11-8.19). On August 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8110 yuan/ton, while on August 11th, the benchmark price was 8100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12%; The low point within the cycle is 8050 yuan/ton.

International crude oil futures have slightly declined this week. As of Friday, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was 79.90 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.01%. Brent crude oil futures settled at $84.12 per barrel, a decrease of 2.13%. Due to the weak economic data in China and the instability of the banking industry in Europe and America, concerns about the global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, and crude oil prices have closed continuously lower. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have played a supportive role in oil prices. In addition to the optimistic expectation of China’s oil demand growth, which continues to boost oil prices, during the summer demand peak season in the northern hemisphere, there are still positive factors for international oil prices. Thursday’s closing price rose, and overall, international oil prices are still at a high level.

Downstream: The factory’s spot prices are tight and firm, while the supplier market is strong. It is reported that the latest TDI execution price of a certain factory in Shanghai is 20200 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 700 yuan/ton. Guided by the news of supplier price adjustments, the trade market reported a rise, and the TDI price market rose. Downstream parties have a resistance towards high prices, and they often follow up on demand and the trading atmosphere is flat, which to some extent suppressed the rise of TDI.

In terms of downstream PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70% and a relatively normal spot supply. This week, the trend of crude oil prices has declined, and PX external market has declined. As of the 17th, the closing prices in Asia were 1006-1008 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1031-1033 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has not changed much. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the external price of PX has slightly decreased. The domestic xylene market price situation is temporarily stable.

Due to the three consecutive declines in the crude oil market at the beginning of the week, the prices of refined gasoline and diesel have slightly declined, but overall, the prices are still at a high level. Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has been around 74%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in refineries in China has risen to the highest level in two years. The operating rate in Shandong has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate has increased to around 67%. The supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and high supply levels. Overall, there has been a slight increase in domestic refined oil supply, which is to some extent negative for the domestic refined oil market prices. Since mid August, the price of gasoline and diesel has not fluctuated significantly. In terms of gasoline, it is at the peak stage of summer tourism, with frequent private car travel and an expanded radius of travel. The high temperature in summer has increased the use of oil for car air conditioners, resulting in strong demand. The domestic gasoline market trend is relatively strong. In addition, the recent downstream replenishment mentality is still acceptable, and the main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and various factors support strong willingness of merchants to increase prices.

Future forecast: Although the international crude oil price has slightly bottomed out this week, it is still at a high level, with support for the cost of toluene; Although the supply side may have eased in August, the downstream product oil of toluene is expected to continue to operate at a high level, providing support for toluene; However, as the price of toluene increases, downstream inquiries tend to slow down. In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.