1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 14th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7661.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% compared to May 8th at 7746.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton.

As of May 14th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7504.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to May 8th at 7581.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7300-7500 yuan/ton.

On May 14th, the naphtha commodity index was 95.36, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 125.76% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume.

This week’s international crude oil market was volatile, with poor performance in US economic data during the current price adjustment cycle. In addition, with the announcement of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, investors’ concerns about the possibility of interest rate hikes triggering an economic recession and a decrease in energy demand continue to rise, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession. The increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has put pressure on the oil market, and the increase in the U.S. crude oil inventory has depressed the international oil market.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On May 8th, the average price of toluene was 7240.00 yuan/ton, and on May 12th, the average price of toluene was 7160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05%. The price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week, with an average price of 7600 yuan/ton on May 8th and 7520 yuan/ton on May 12th, a decrease of 1.05%. This week, the price trend of PX has declined. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-works price of xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that this week’s international crude oil market experienced a downward trend, coupled with weak costs and demand for local refining naphtha, terminal restructuring, and continued weak demand for ethylene. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. It is expected that local refining naphtha may continue to decline in the near future.