Price trend
In April, the domestic EVA market continued to be negative, with spot prices gradually decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 15333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.55% from the price level at the beginning of the month.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
Entering April, the ethylene market in the raw material end showed stable consolidation and operation. In the first ten days, the support for the cost side increased, and together with the maintenance of overseas international large factories in the middle of the year, it supported the ethylene market. However, the overall domestic demand is average, and there are few out of contract transactions. The market for vinyl acetate is relatively weak when it is convenient, and downstream factories in China are generally operating, with on-site consumption leaning towards the lowest demand. The scale of production capacity loss in the supply side within the month is relatively small, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Adding to the poor support from the raw material side, the spot market for vinyl acetate in April did not show any improvement, and prices fell due to weakness. The raw material market has been flat and falling, weakening support for EVA market.
On the supply side:
Due to the rapid increase in the load of multiple domestic EVA production enterprises in March, the EVA industry took on the pattern of high load from last month in April. The overall operating rate of the enterprise fluctuated between 80% -90% during the month, with an operating rate of approximately 83.9% at the end of the month. At the same time, the production is relatively stable, with a total monthly production of about 155100 tons, and the market supply is abundant. There is pressure on factory inventory, and factory prices have been lowered. The inventory in society is also under pressure, and the operation of traders giving up profits and taking orders runs through the entire month. Within the range, there has been a significant decline in the spot prices of mainstream brands, coupled with the impact of the new production of the Gulei Petrochemical plant in the latter half of the year, overall the supplier’s support for spot prices is poor.
In terms of demand:
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
The domestic market atmosphere for EVA is weak this month. The demand for foaming materials has not improved, and terminal enterprises have lagged behind in following up. Consumption of shoe materials and other aspects is weak, and there is little trading on the market. Affected by the news of new production devices, buyers are cautious in stocking up, merchants have a low mentality, and the market is not smooth in selling goods. In terms of actual trading, there is a bias towards low end prices, and companies are resistant to high priced sources of goods. The demand side has a negative impact on the EVA price trend during the month.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, the EVA market performed negatively in April, with prices falling all the way down. The raw material market has turned down, and there is insufficient support for EVA spot sales. Downstream demand is sluggish, with poor support for EVA spot sales. EVA started at a high level within the month, and the polymerization plant went to the warehouse for operation, with traders following the market. At present, there are many market offers that offer discounts, and there is an increase in price reduction and order taking operations. There is a certain degree of supply-demand contradiction in the market, and the atmosphere is relatively empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to operate in a weak manner in early May.
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