1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8026.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared to April 17, 8126.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000 yuan/ton.

As of April 23, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7876.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% compared to 7901.50 yuan/ton on April 17. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-7900 yuan/ton.

On April 23, the naphtha commodity index was 99.06, an increase of 0.06 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 18.56% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 134.52% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and declined, with weak costs and demand, terminal restructuring, weak demand for ethylene, limited market trading, and light trading volume.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and fell. Recently, the market was worried about the performance of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The strengthening of the US dollar suppressed oil prices. In addition, the increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the market, and the crude oil market price trend fell back.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased this week. On April 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7510.00 yuan/ton, and on April 21st, the benchmark price was 7590.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07%. The price of mixed xylene remained stable this week, at 7880 yuan/ton. In terms of the PX market, several sets of PX devices in China are still undergoing maintenance, and the supply of PX continues to contract. The on-site supply of goods is normal, and the situation of goods is good. However, it is difficult to increase terminal demand, and the price trend is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-works price of xylene is 9100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the price of local refined naphtha has slightly declined this week, with weak costs and demand, terminal restructuring, weak demand for ethylene, limited market trading, and light trading volume; But as May Day approaches, some downstream companies are preparing for the holiday and it is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be the main focus.