1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene has shown a downward trend this month. On March 1st, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 7080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton or 3.15% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, in early March, the Saudi side stated that the OPEC+2 million barrels per day production reduction agreement would be implemented until the end of this year. The tight global idle capacity and supply uncertainty related to the Russia Ukraine war have limited the downward space for oil prices. The market is generally optimistic about Asia’s expectations for crude oil demand, and the expectation of a rebound in the demand side of the crude oil market is constantly strengthening. The oil price is strengthening, and the spot supply of toluene is tight, while the price of toluene remains high.

In late March, against the backdrop of the global economic recession, the macro risks brought about by the banking problems in Silicon Valley led to a significant decline in crude oil prices. Affected by the economic recession environment, the market as a whole was still in a state of panic. With the tightening of liquidity and the expected adjustment of crude oil supply and demand structure caused by this risk aversion sentiment, the overall operating range of oil prices shifted downward, and the basic performance of the toluene market was poor, with prices operating in a weak state.

The crude oil price fluctuated in March, showing a “V” shaped trend. On March 31, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in Shangshang Society was 72.97 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -3.58% compared to the beginning of this month (75.68 US dollars per barrel). The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.59 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.42% compared to the beginning of this month (82.04 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI has been falling all the way this month. On March 1st, the price was 19500 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price dropped to 17800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.72%. This month, the mainstream performance of the domestic market is weak, with a supply and demand dilemma. Downstream purchasing demand continues to be sluggish, with a general trading atmosphere and a stalemate in the trade market. Holders mainly ship goods, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. The short-term TDI market is running light.

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices have remained stable this month, with a promising increase at the end of the month. The overall price in March remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further improved, and the price of PX market rose strongly.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fluctuated positively in the first half of this month and negatively in the second half. On March 1st, the price was 8472.6 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 8410.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market continues to decline, with a light trading atmosphere and significant sales pressure from the main operating units at the end of the month, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, with the easing of concerns about the recent economic recession and the expected increase in supply tightening, oil prices have emerged from the low levels caused by banking issues and are in the stage of recovery and repair. Short term crude oil fundamentals still have support, but demand growth is limited, and the upward path is still hindered. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to be mainly recovered from fluctuations next month. As the weather gets warmer, people’s travel willingness and activity radius increase, the demand for gasoline gradually increases. In addition to the increase in gasoline exports in April, the market is favorable to support the overweight, and the gasoline market has some room for growth. From the perspective of future market, it is expected that the domestic toluene market price will rebound to a high level in April. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.