According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 28, 2023 was 413.48 yuan/g, down 1.95% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.88% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).
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According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 28, 2023 was 4859.33 yuan/kg, down 0.15% per day, down 6.45% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and down 9.28% from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg, down 9.28%; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 11%.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.
Macro data of the day
The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States recorded – 4.5% in January, up from 5.1%, the largest decline since April 2020. The monthly rate of the contracted sales index of completed houses in the United States recorded 8.1% in January, the largest increase since June 2020.
The monthly rate of the contracted sales index of completed houses in January was 8.1%, better than the expected 1%; The Dallas Fed’s business activity index in February was – 13.5, lower than the expected 9.3.
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According to the observation data of CME Federal Reserve, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in March to be 75.3%, and the expectation of raising interest rates by 50BP will fall slightly; The probability of raising interest rate by 25BP in May is 70.7%; The probability of a 25BP interest rate increase in June is 56.6%, and the probability of no interest rate increase is 23.3%. The mainstream expected peak interest rate will remain at 5.25% – 5.5%.
Position data
On February 27, SPDR gold ETF position increased by 0.29 tons to 917.61 tons; IShares silver ETF position decreased by 38.6 tons to 14966.63 tons.
Precious metal aftermarket logic and prediction
Due to its strong metal properties, silver’s rise and fall trend is affected by the non-ferrous basic market to a certain extent, and is greatly affected by the physical demand. Gold is more sensitive to macro policy factors because of its strong monetary attribute. In the short term, the price of precious metals is still subject to tightening expectations and economic recession concerns. The Federal Reserve and the central banks are facing a slowdown in the process of raising interest rates, and the leading impact of the expected rate increase on gold prices will be weakened; The impact of economic data will increase significantly and become the leading factor. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.
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