According to the data of the business community, the average price of silver market in the morning on December 19 was 5237 yuan/kg, up 2.58% from the average price of spot market in the early morning of the month (December 1), 5065.33 yuan/kg; The average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 4770 yuan/kg, up 8.93%.
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On December 19, the spot market price of gold was 405.88 yuan/g, down 0.007% from the early average of 405.91 yuan/g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 8.99%.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year
In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. Recently, silver has gained a relatively large amount.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in line with market expectations, and speculative enthusiasm is relatively insufficient
At the beginning of the week, the US announced that the same month on month growth of November CPI and core CPI was lower than expected. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50BP as scheduled, in line with market expectations. After the boots of the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate increase were put on the ground in December, the probability of monetary policy turning loose in the short term is small, and the probability of interest rate increase slowing is large. Therefore, from the perspective of investment, speculative interest has not been stimulated. As of December 16, the position of the world’s largest SPRD gold ETF fund was about 910.4 tons, unchanged from last week; The position of the largest SLV silver ETF fund in the world is about 14548 tons, which is 182 tons less than last week; According to relevant data, the total amount of gold delivered from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in October was 98 tons, down 81 tons month on month and 38 tons month on month.
Precious metal currency attributes strengthen, and central bank data is good
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According to the report released by the World Gold Council in November, in the third quarter of 2022, central banks around the world purchased 399 tons of gold, worth about $20 billion, more than four times that of the same period last year. Up to now, central banks around the world have purchased 673 tons of gold in 2022, hitting a 55 year high. The monetary attribute of gold is strengthening, and the short-term energy price is supported.
Future market of precious metals
At present, the obvious performance of the US economy entering recession is increasing, including the shrinking of manufacturing industry prosperity and the rising number of enterprise layoffs. The space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is gradually narrowing, and the increase of interest rates depresses the price of precious metals. However, recently, the monetary attribute of precious metals has been strengthened, supporting the gold price to a certain extent, and the probability of sideways shocks is expected to increase in the short term.
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