1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of December 16, spot nickel quoted 223033.33 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the beginning of the week and up 53.32% year on year.

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 6, fell by 5 and leveled off by 1. Recently, the nickel price has fallen slightly after its strength.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 50bp as scheduled, and the benchmark interest rate rose to 4.25-4.5%. The official speech was slightly hawkish. In addition, retail sales in the United States and China News Agency’s zero data in November fell back more than expected, with poor data.

On the supply side: Nova Nickel Mine in Western Australia recently announced that it would suspend nickel production for about four weeks, and nickel soared last week due to accidental events; The main mining areas in the Philippines enter the rainy season, and the shipment volume is small. The export of nickel ore is already at a low level.

In terms of demand: As the end of the year is approaching, some stainless steel prices have risen due to the positive impact of the downstream stainless steel enterprises’ stock preparation before the festival and the stimulus of favorable macro policies. However, the nickel price at the raw material end fell slightly this week, and the stainless steel price subsequently fell back. It is expected that the short-term vibration of stainless steel is weak.

To sum up, the overall nickel price was weak and shocked by macro sentiment. The hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve aroused new concerns about economic growth. Concerns about economic recession increased and investors took profits. Inflation concerns put significant pressure on the commodity market. Oil prices fell back, and weak demand again highlighted. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate slightly.