According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 13, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5916.67 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5016.67 yuan/ton), the price increased by 900 yuan/ton, or 19.60%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that the diethylene glycol market in 2022 will mainly show a narrow range fluctuation trend from January to May, and then there will be two more obvious rises from the middle of May. From May 11 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 4900 yuan/ton) to August 20 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 4830 yuan/ton), the first round of market saw a relatively obvious rise and then slowly fell back, which took about three and a half months, with the peak appearing on July 10 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 5516.67 yuan/ton). The second round of the market started to rise from the low point in late August (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 4830 yuan/ton) until the end of November and the beginning of December (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 6133.33 yuan/ton, the high price in 2022), and then began to dip back.

In the first stage, from January to May of 2022, the domestic diethylene glycol market maintained a range fluctuation trend. The international crude oil surged and fell, the port inventory continued to be high, and the downstream demand was weak. Under the influence of multiple factors, the market maintained a volatile trend. After returning from the Spring Festival holiday in February, the arrival of imported cargoes at the port was delayed irregularly, and the inventory at the terminal was gradually accumulated. Since the middle of March, the domestic epidemic was severe, and under the logistics control policy, the shipment at the terminal was not smooth, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The inventory of East China’s main ports fluctuated between 5500 tons and 7500 tons. On April 23, the inventory reached 78600 tons, a new high in the year. The downstream market recovered slowly and the demand performance was poor. At the end of the spring holiday in February, the starting time of some UPR plants was delayed, and the comprehensive starting level was low. Affected by COVID-19, workers’ return to work is delayed and logistics transportation is impeded, raw material procurement and shipment of the factory are blocked, downstream and terminal follow-up is poor, and demand performance is weak. At the same time, affected by COVID-19, the polyester industry started at a low level, and the use of diethylene glycol was less than expected.

In the second stage, from mid May to mid August, the domestic diethylene glycol market rose and then fell back. With the tight supply of global crude oil leading to an overall increase in international oil prices, the cost support is strong, the domestic unit load is reduced, the output is reduced, the port shipment is good, and the inventory is reduced. Although the downstream industry starts at a low level and the demand side performs generally, the diethylene glycol starts to warm up until the first ten days of July, and the domestic market price of diethylene glycol rose 616.67 yuan/ton, or 12.59%. The port shipment was good, the shipment volume was increased, the port inventory was slightly reduced, the inventory of the main port in East China was reduced from 72500 tons to 49500 tons, and the domestic Far East Lianhua, Yangzi Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Sinopec and other manufacturers and plants were shut down for maintenance in May June, with the output decreased, and the overall supply was tight. However, in the middle of July, the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates and superimposed the global economic recession, the crude oil price fell in shock, the cost support weakened, and the focus of the UPR market fell. With the continuous decline of other raw material prices, the UPR market continued to decline, leading to the continuous decline of the overall construction of the UPR industry and limited demand for raw materials. The cost support was insufficient and the demand was limited. The price of diethylene glycol declined slowly, falling by 686.67 yuan/ton or 12.45% as of August 20. All the previous gains were reversed.

In the third stage, from late August to the end of November and early December, the domestic diethylene glycol market soared and rose against the trend. OPEC+decided to significantly reduce production and add market supply concerns to support oil prices again. International crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong cost support, good port shipments, and low inventory shocks. Affected by ethylene glycol, the operating load of enterprises was not high, domestic production supply was reduced, downstream operations resumed, and demand was good. Under the influence of multiple factors, diethylene glycol began to operate more strongly. With the gradual cooling of the weather and the gradual lifting of power restrictions, the off-season of UPR market gradually ended, and the commencement of work continued to resume. UPR prices continued to rise. UPR shipments were better under the market mentality of buying up rather than buying down, and the shipment of diethylene glycol was warmer. During the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday in China, downstream manufacturers had a considerable amount of goods in stock before the two festivals. The port realized rapid destocking and the return of the National Day. The domestic diethylene glycol market has always maintained a tight state of rising prices. The port realized staged destocking. As of October 31, 2022, the port inventory in East China was about 18900 tons, down 42600 tons, or 68.76%, from 60500 tons on August 22. The number of ships entering the port in East China was also small, The port inventory has been kept at a low level. As of November 28, 2022, the port inventory in East China is about 20000 tons. The port inventory is low and the supply is tight.

In the fourth stage, in December, the domestic diethylene glycol market continued to dip. The cost side support was weak, the demand performance was poor, the supply side support was average, and the diethylene glycol market was weak. The sharp increase in the inventory of U.S. refined oil products was compounded by concerns that the Federal Reserve would continue its aggressive interest rate increase policy, the price of crude oil futures fell sharply, and the cost side support weakened. The first unit in Maoming was restarted, the domestic production and supply increased slightly, the market transaction was average, the wait-and-see mood of the operators became stronger, the shipment in the reservoir area fell back, the port unloading inventory increased significantly, the port inventory in South China was on the high side, and the supply side performance was poor. The UPR industry started on the low side, the market inventory was slowly digested, and most of the goods were shipped along with the line, and the demand side of diethylene glycol performed poorly.

At present, the port has accumulated stocks. The market is worried about the increase of supply, and the demand expectation is gradually weakening. The overall market sentiment is not high, and the industry is cautious. The market has no good news guidance for the time being. The Diethylene Glycol Datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the Diethylene Glycol market is weak, and the price continues to decline. More attention should be paid to the terminal shipments and subsequent arrivals.