Recently, the price trend of refining steam and diesel oil has declined. As of the 23rd, the domestic price of 92 # gasoline was 8134.6 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the 10th; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil was 8786.8 yuan/ton, down 3.0% from the price on the 10th. On the one hand, the demand was low, and on the other hand, the price of crude oil was low.

Comparison Chart of Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Prices

In terms of gasoline: the recent epidemic situation has spread in many places, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to enter the market has been greatly frustrated, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has been sluggish, and the market price has continued to decline. The operating rate of refineries remained at about 65%, and the supply side was normal. The local refineries were relatively abundant in resource supply. In addition, the gasoline inventory rose, the operators’ intention to enter the market was reduced, the market atmosphere was light, and the gasoline price was weak and low.

In terms of diesel oil: with the decline of temperature, the operating rate of large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries has declined. At the same time, the northern autumn harvest has ended, and agricultural oil consumption has decreased. Although the export volume is still guaranteed, with the gradual recovery of domestic refinery output, the tension in resource supply has eased slightly, and the trend of diesel market has declined.

In terms of crude oil: after the middle of November, the international crude oil price fell sharply. As of the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 80.95 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 88.36 dollars/barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the crude oil price has declined, and the domestic refined oil market has been affected.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, an oil product analyst from the business community, believes that the realization of international oil prices is weak, and the cost has negative impact. There is no positive factor to boost the gasoline industry, and travel in some regions is limited. The demand for gasoline is poor, and there is still a risk of price decline. At present, the downstream has increased their resistance to high priced resources, the operating rate of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is expected to decline, the demand for diesel oil has declined, and the price of diesel oil market has dropped slightly in the later period.