1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fluctuated this week. On November 20, the average price of Shandong market was 3876.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with that on November 14.

On November 20, the petroleum coke commodity index was 301.51, unchanged from yesterday, 26.23% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 350.75% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke in the refinery was flat this week. At present, the inventory of the refinery is at a low level. The downstream demand is good and the transaction is good.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell in shock, and the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over, and it was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The price of metal silicon market declines; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose in a volatile way. As of November 20, the price was 19273.33 yuan/ton; Downstream carbon enterprises have good purchasing enthusiasm.

The oil coke analyst of the business agency believes that: this week, the international crude oil shocks and declines, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; At present, the petroleum coke stock of local refining enterprises is at a medium low level, but the number of imported coke arriving in Hong Kong recently is large, and the petroleum coke market is sufficient. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will decline slightly in the near future.