Recently, the zinc price has risen again
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 24728 yuan/ton as of November 15, up 6.87% from 23138 yuan/ton on November 1. After the zinc price rose for five consecutive days in November, the zinc price fell slightly on the eighth day, but only fell for two days, and the zinc price rose again for three consecutive days.
Bullish factor
Glencore maintained its Nordenham zinc smelter in Germany in November, and the scale of reduction and shutdown of European refineries will be expanded to 740000 tons. The reduction and shutdown of European refineries are further expanded, and the supply of zinc in Europe is expected to decrease.
Due to environmental pollution in the waters of Sichuan, the Provincial Environmental Protection Department ordered some zinc smelters to stop production, resulting in limited output of relevant refineries. It is reported that the annual capacity of enterprises affected this time is 310,000 tons, and the supply of zinc in domestic cities is reduced.
Bad factors
LME currently does not prohibit the delivery of Russian metals, nor does it set a threshold for the Russian inventory. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market is stable, avoiding a serious shortage of zinc supply in the market.
The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate continues to rise, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters rises, and the domestic zinc ingot output is expected to increase.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
The Indian Mining Federation sent a letter to the Ministry of Finance seeking to increase the import tax on zinc and other metals to stop the tide of imports, especially from China. India’s supply of zinc import tax affects China’s export of zinc ingots, and the demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline.
Future market forecast
According to the data analysts of the business community; Affected by the shutdown of maintenance in Europe and the shutdown of environmental protection in Sichuan, the supply of zinc in the city is reduced; However, LME does not restrict Russian metals, and the continuous rise of domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has stimulated the production enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises, ensuring the supply of zinc in the city; However, India has increased the import tax on zinc metal in advance, affecting the export of zinc ingots, and the demand for zinc is expected to decline. In general, the supply and demand of zinc market are weak, the short-term supply of zinc market is insufficient, stimulating the shock rise of zinc price, the long-term supply of zinc market is basically stable, the demand is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of zinc market is increased. Long term zinc price is expected to be adjusted in a wide range.
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