Price trend

The domestic PA6 market fell in early November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 14233.33 yuan/ton on October 30 and 14100 yuan/ton on November 9, with a range of – 0.94% increase and – 15.74% decrease compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

The market environment of PA6 continued to be affected by the trend of global high inflation economy, but the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase slowing down in the early stage came true, and the negative side of the market was less than expected. At the same time, the recent international crude oil production reduction plan was announced, and the decline of oil prices narrowed immediately. The negative impact of the current macro market and remote costs on the PA6 market has slightly slowed down.

In terms of raw materials, the recent decline in the domestic caprolactam market can be seen from the figure below. The utilization rate of domestic caprolactam plants has been greatly stabilized and slightly reduced, and the overall load is close to 70%. The offer of petrochemical plants and merchants has been lowered. The average spot price in the East China market is about 12100 yuan/ton. Downstream polymerization plants are cautious in taking goods to maintain production. The raw material pure benzene fell broadly. The inventory of ports in East China was higher than 70000 tons, and the flow of goods on the site was poor. Caprolactam lacks positive market in the short term.

In terms of supply: the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises is stable, and the overall load level is about 69%. Last week, PA6 output was 87000 tons, which was flat, and the market supply situation remained abundant. In addition, there is still pressure on the supplier from the news of the production of the newly added PA6 device in the early stage.

Demand: In the downstream industry, the operating rate of nylon filament remained at 75%, while the load position of other fields dropped steadily, generally between 50% and 60%. At the end of the current traditional peak season, the competition in the market is strengthened. The demand volume at the early stage of superposition was less than expected, and the high-end offer on the market was generally not smooth. The buyer just needs to stock up and buy cautiously, and the wait-and-see mentality is biased. The traders have no strong confidence in the future market, and the number of traders who take orders secretly increases.

Future market forecast

The market of PA6 weakened in early November. The load of domestic polymerization plants is flat and the supply is sufficient. On the demand side, it is slightly insufficient, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand has a certain drag on the market. However, on the whole, the current bad news of PA6 market mainly comes from the high decline of caprolactam at the raw material end. Moreover, the upstream industrial chain market is negative, and improvement is yet to be made. Therefore, the domestic PA6 market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term.