According to the data from the business community, the average early price of silver market on October 31 was 4495.67 yuan/kg, down 1.56% on a daily basis, up 2.92% from the average early price of 4367.33 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1); Compared with the early average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 4770 yuan/kg, a decrease of 5.75%.
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On October 31, the spot market price of gold was 391.60 yuan/g, down 0.38% on a daily basis, up 0.45% from the early average price of 389.84 yuan/g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 5.16%.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year
In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
Macro policy
1. Domestic policy
Recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has successively broken through important thresholds, and the trend of RMB devaluation has boosted the domestic demand for gold preservation.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Investigation Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, commented on China’s PMI in October: the price index continued to rise. The purchase price index of main raw materials and the ex factory price index were 53.3% and 48.7% respectively, 2.0 and 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the purchase price index of main raw materials was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the overall level of the purchase price of raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to rise compared with that of the previous month. In terms of the industry, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of major raw materials in agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing and other industries were higher than 60.0% and 53.0% respectively, and the purchase price of raw materials and the sales price of products rose simultaneously; The two price indexes of textile, wood processing and furniture manufacturing industries were lower than the critical point, and the market prices fell back.
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2. International policy
The UK overnight index swap market shows that the probability of the Bank of England raising interest rates by 75 basis points this week is 98%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 2%.
The Central Bank of Colombia raised interest rates to 11.00%, up from 10.00%.
The Bank of Denmark raised its key interest rate from 0.65% to 1.25%.
Future market forecast
UBS expects that gold will face downside risks before the end of the year. There will be some stability in the first half of 2023 and a moderate recovery at the end of 2023. The main reason is that the interest rate hike is expected to restrain the price of interest free precious metals. There is no expectation of the end of international interest rate increase in the short term, which to some extent suppresses the precious metal market. It is expected that in the short term, the price of precious metals will be dominated by weak sideways movement.
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