In September 2022, the textile raw material market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the textile index of the business community, the textile index was 987 points as of September 30, down 7 points from 994 at the beginning of the month, 14.62% from the highest point in the cycle of 1156 (2018-09-03), and 44.93% from the lowest point of 681 on August 13, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of price, according to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the textile sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in September 2022, including 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 10.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were acrylonitrile (10.90%), spandex (7.03%) and nylon POY (3.59%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 1 kind of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 5.3% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products of decline were viscose staple fiber (-6.86%), lint (-3.16%) and rayon yarn (-2.50%).

Good cost supports the chemical fiber market to rise more than fall less

It can be seen from the above table that, in addition to the weakness of the viscose industry chain, other chemical fiber products have risen to varying degrees, with the most obvious increase in acrylonitrile. As of September 30, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9870 yuan/ton, up 10.90% from 8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In September, such acrylonitrile units as Silbang, Jilin Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO and Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to operate under reduced load. The raw propylene market rose significantly, with stronger cost support. As of September 29, the domestic propylene price was 7620 yuan/ton, up 7.32% from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In addition, with the increase of demand, the downstream ABS continued to operate at a high level of 8-9%, and the acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industries started to operate stably. The reduction of production by itself and the advantages of upstream and downstream are superimposed, but there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later period. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the later period.

The spandex market showed an upward trend in September, reversing the downward trend for five consecutive months. As of September 30, the average market price of specification 40D was 35000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.03%. The unit load of the polyurethane fiber factory increased, and the industrial commencement increased to 6.10%, with sufficient supply of goods in the market. However, the price of raw materials has increased significantly. In addition, the terminal of “Jinjiu” has warmed up. Downstream customers are active in picking up goods. The pressure on the inventory of spandex has gradually eased, and the inventory of individual specifications and models is tight. The manufacturer’s offer rose, the current market as a whole showed signs of improvement, and the cost benefit remained unchanged. In the short term, the price of spandex will still rise slightly.

However, since July this year, viscose staple fiber has been showing a downward trend. As of September 30, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13840 yuan/ton, down 11.62% from July 1, and 6.86% in September. It is hard to find a good demand side. The air atmosphere is thick, and the delivery of human cotton yarn is difficult to improve. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is average, and the demand for replenishment is mainly. Since the end of the month, the price of raw material dissolving pulp has been lowered, further promoting the price center of viscose staple fiber to a higher level. In the future, the cost support is loose, the weak demand situation is difficult to ease, and the market is pessimistic. It is expected that the viscose staple fiber industry chain will continue to operate in a weak position.

The pressure of supply and demand is difficult to ease. Cotton textile prices continue to run weak

USDA released the latest supply and demand report in the middle of September. The report shows that, globally, in 2022/23, global cotton production and ending inventory increased month on month compared with August, while consumption decreased month on month. The domestic carry over inventory is high, and Xinjiang cotton enters the picking period. The market expects that the annual output of Xinjiang cotton in 22/23 will be around 5.8 million tons. In terms of demand, traders made replenishment for winter orders and e-commerce festival purchases, and the situation of enterprises receiving orders improved, but short orders and small orders still dominated, with no obvious characteristics in peak seasons. The situation of oversupply is difficult to change in the short term. The domestic cotton price continued to decline. As of September 30, the average market price of domestic cotton (3128B) was 15479 yuan/ton, down 3.16% from the beginning of the month.

Analysts from the business community believe that the textile market in September, especially chemical fiber products, showed a good rise, boosted by rising costs and the “Golden Ninth” traditional peak season. It is expected that the textile market will show a strong trend in October due to the superposition of positive news such as demand improvement, inventory decline, and cost support. However, we still need to pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices, follow-up equipment maintenance, new equipment production, and the sustainability of demand.