In September, the domestic phenol market ended the narrow range of rise and fall in August, showing an accelerated upward trend, and the smooth breakthrough of 10000 yuan has not yet peaked. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of phenol offered nationwide will be 9312 yuan/ton on August 1, 2022, 9512 yuan/ton on September 1, and 11075 yuan/ton on September 27, up 16.5% in September.

As of September 27, the quotation of the national mainstream phenol negotiation market: 11000 yuan/ton for the mainstream tank car negotiation in East China, 11100-11150 yuan/ton for Shandong, 11050 yuan/ton for the surrounding areas of Yanshan, 11050 yuan/ton for South China and 11250 yuan/ton for Henan. The goods preparation before the festival continues. The domestic supply continues to be tight, and the import port stock reaches a low level of 13000 tons. Under the tension, the low level does not go out. The downstream is still just in need of replenishment, and the turnover of new orders declines due to factors such as holiday logistics and high raw materials.

In September, the domestic phenol market accelerated to rise mainly because of the tight supply.

First, the operating rate of domestic equipment maintenance declined. On August 29, the 300000 t/a phenol and ketone plant of Huizhou Zhongxin was shut down for 7 days due to power failure in the park; on September 6, the 650000 t/a phenol and ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I was shut down for 7 days to wash the tower, and the 650000 t/a plant of Phase II was 90%; The social operating rate was 70% in the first half of the year, and increased to 80% in the second half of the year with the restart and load increase of major units.

Second, the harbor stock touched the bottom periodically and the shipping date was delayed due to typhoon. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the typhoon affected the delay of the arrival of ships and cargoes, and the loading and unloading of some domestic spot cargoes were mostly delayed, thus the short-term port supply was restrained.

The demand increases, and the downstream products are rising fiercely, which is good for the raw material side

In August, Cangzhou Dahua BPA plant was successfully put into operation, and the demand for phenol is expected to increase. Since September, BPA has continued the trend of last month and accelerated its upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market price of BPA was 13000 yuan/ton on September 1, and the market price rose to 16500 yuan/ton on September 27, up 29% in September. It is mainly due to the tight supply. First, the main manufacturers mainly supply long-term customers, with limited external sales of spot goods. Second, the supply of imported goods is limited, with contracts accounting for a large proportion. In September, the RMB continued to depreciate, the US dollar exchange rate exceeded 7, and the external market simultaneously boosted the import negotiations cautiously. In addition, due to the typhoon weather in mid month, the import shipment date was delayed to varying degrees. Third, the supply of domestic unit maintenance has declined. During the shutdown and maintenance of Sinopec’s Well 3 unit, Zhongxin in Huizhou stopped to the fifth day of the beginning of this month, and PICC in Yanhua resumed to restart on the fifteenth day. At present, the industry’s operating rate is around 70%.

Phenol rose sharply in September as a whole, but there was also a slight correction in the middle, mainly because the downstream demand for other downstream products was average, except for bisphenol A. For example, after the high temperature and low season of phenolic resin in summer, the raw material phenol was at a high level in September, and with the weather cooling, the phenolic resin should have a higher operating rate. However, due to the rising raw materials, it was difficult for the cost side to accept and restrain the overall demand, and the purchase of raw material phenol was limited; Other downstream areas also show difficulty in digesting high costs to curb overall demand.

From the perspective of the business community, the tight supply situation before the short-term holiday is hard to change, and the transportation near the National Day holiday is also restrained. From the perspective of the demand side, the demand for bisphenol A continues to be insufficient for other downstream follow-up, and the acceptance of high price phenol is limited. However, Lihuayi and others on the 27th raised 200 yuan/ton again, and the factory was listed for 11100 yuan/ton. The ports in East China near the National Day holiday only made up 13000 tons, which is hard to change. It is expected that phenol will operate stably in the short term, and the negotiation space in East China will be 11000-1100 yuan/ton.