According to the data of the business society, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4366.67 yuan/ton on September 26, down 1.69% from the market average price of 4441.67 yuan/ton on September 16.

From the data of the supply side, the weekly supply of MEG fell back slightly last week, down 2.44% to 43.98% month on month, and the load of coal MEG fell slightly 2.08% to 28.67% month on month, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of some coal plants; However, the restart device is still in the process of starting, and there is a difference in the starting time in the near future. It is expected that the load will rise significantly in the later period. Recent plant developments are as follows:

Oil production: Zhenhai Refining&Chemical’s 800000t unit is scheduled to be overhauled for one month in November, Fujian Gulei’s 700000t unit is expected to be restarted in the middle of next week, Hengli’s one unit will be restarted, and the other 180000t unit will be restarted at the weekend;

Coal production: Tongliao 300000 ton plant was restarted at half load, SIA restarted the 300000 ton plant of Shaanxi Weihua, and Jianyuan 240000 ton plant of 400000 ton plant. The 600000 ton plant of Yulin, Shaanxi, is in production. It is expected that the materials will be discharged in October, Woneng 300000 ton plant will restart after a short stop, Xinjiang Tianye 650000 ton plant will restart later), Guanghui 400000 ton plant will restart later, Tianying will restart failure, Inner Mongolia Yankuang will reduce the load, and the annual maintenance will be canceled, Guangxi Huayi stopped for maintenance for half a month on September 16.

According to the demand data, the terminal demand in the peak season has weakened. Although the short-term demand can still be maintained, MEG’s domestic supply will pick up significantly in the future. This week, despite the rebound in arrival in Hong Kong, although it is still continuing to destock, the extent of destocking has slowed down.

Forecast: The supply side rebounds, the downstream demand is weak, and MEG may be weak in the short term.