1、 Price trend
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According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of pure benzene rose slightly this week, and fell slightly. On September 9, the price of pure benzene was 7700-7850 yuan/ton (the average price was 7767 yuan/ton). On Friday (September 16), the price of pure benzene was 7750-7950 yuan/ton (the average price was 7817 yuan/ton). The average price was 0.64% higher than that of last week and 10.04% lower than that of the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of the ship was delayed, and the shipment in Shandong was good, so the pure benzene rose after the festival. However, the crude oil fell sharply, coupled with the softening of styrene, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene to weaken, and near the weekend, pure benzene fell back slightly. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene in East China increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate.
This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 7750 yuan/ton.
In terms of external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell after rising this week. On Thursday (September 15), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 901 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton year-on-year, or 1.69%; The reference import price in East China was 937 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17 US dollars/ton, or 1.85%.
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In terms of crude oil, European winter energy supply tension supported, and oil prices rose at the beginning of the week. However, under the pressure of high inflation, the market is worried that the Federal Reserve may significantly raise interest rates. The expectation of global economic recession continues to be depressed, and oil prices have fallen back in shock. As of September 16, Brent price this week fell 1.49 dollars/barrel, or 1.6%, compared with last week; WTI fell 1.68 USD/barrel, or 1.94%.
Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene in Shandong fell back after rising. The price was 9510 yuan/ton on September 9 and 9700 yuan/ton on September 16, up 2% from last week and 0.44% from the same period last year.
Aniline: Aniline stabilized after rising this week. On September 16, the price in Shandong was 11600-11800 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000-12300 yuan/ton, 1.95% higher than last week and 8.8% higher than the same period last year.
3、 Future market forecast
In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market is long and short, and the energy supply is expected to be tight in winter; However, the expectation of interest rate increase in Europe and the United States is strong, and the market is still worried about economic recession. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.
Downstream: styrene, the main product in the downstream: the market for pure benzene fluctuated and consolidated, with poor cost support; Styrene rose sharply in the early stage. At present, downstream profits are limited, and the receiving mood is not high. It is expected that the styrene market will fall mainly in the short term.
Fuhaichuang and Hainan Refining&Chemical aromatics plants were restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased; Under the influence of the typhoon, it is estimated that the number of ships arriving at Hong Kong next week is still low; And near the National Day holiday, downstream stock or support the price of pure benzene. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.
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