In August, the inventory pressure of ammonium chloride market continued in the off-season, and the price of ammonium chloride fell slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1210 yuan / ton at the beginning of August and 1145 yuan / ton at the end of August, down 5.37%.

In August, the low-season of agricultural fertilizer, the downstream compound fertilizer plant started only around 30%, and the demand for ammonium chloride was weak. In the middle and late ten days of the month, despite the impact of the high temperature limit, the operation rate of the combined alkali plant of ammonium chloride enterprises once dropped to around 60%, but the overall inventory pressure of ammonium chloride was not significantly relieved, which was insufficient to support the market of ammonium chloride; At the end of the month, with the restart of the early maintenance unit, the commencement of the ammonium chloride industry gradually increased slightly, and the pressure on the supply side increased again. Throughout August, the ammonium chloride market continued to decline slightly under the haze of supply pressure.

In August, the price of raw liquid ammonia fluctuated and consolidated, the price of hydrochloric acid dropped significantly, and the cost dropped. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 3800 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.71% over the price of 3773 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The highest point in the month was 3890 yuan / ton and the lowest point was 3733 yuan / ton. After the sharp drop in July, the liquid ammonia market took a partial turn for the better in early August. Due to the load reduction of several large factories in the north, the supply was tight, and the price rebounded from the bottom. Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places all increased to varying degrees. After the second week of August, the market fell into a downturn again due to the increase of large plants and the loose supply. Until the end of the month, with the continuous impact of power restrictions in the south, social inventories were digested one after another, liquid ammonia rebounded generally, and Shandong increased significantly.

In July, the price of urea fluctuated and consolidated, with limited support for ammonium chloride. As of August 31, the domestic urea price was 2400 yuan / ton, down 0.33% from the price of 2408 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The high point of the month was 2438 yuan / ton and the low point was 2312 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the support of cost and agricultural demand is insufficient; on the other hand, the supply side reduction caused by industrial demand and power limitation has brought support to urea.

Due to the impact of high temperature limit, the supply pressure of ammonium chloride in August was weaker than that in the previous period, but the downstream demand was weak and the removal of ammonium chloride from the storage was not obvious. The low export volume of ammonium chloride has increased the supply pressure on the domestic market. According to the business agency, the export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizer in China in July 2022 was 28700 tons. At the end of the month, with the gradual recovery of power supply and the gradual restart of some maintenance units in the early stage, the pressure on the supply side of ammonium chloride will continue.

Future forecast: the analysts of business club ammonium chloride believe that the current supply side is loose and the cost side remains low, but the demand side may improve in the later period of autumn fertilizer, and it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will rise slightly in the later period.