Aluminum price fell on the 30th

According to the data of business agency, on August 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18573.33 yuan / ton, down 2.11% on a daily basis, up 1.40% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), down 11.68% from the average market price of 20390 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 23.38%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery increases by 6.44%.

Fundamentals overview

According to the news, the recent rainfall in Sichuan has increased the water storage capacity of the reservoir group. Although the actual recovery of hydropower generation remains to be seen, the pressure of power consumption in the early stage has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the impact of the overall high-temperature power restriction on the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

According to the delivery data, the delivery volume of the mainstream areas last week was about 150000 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous month, and the downstream demand was relatively weak.

On the macro level, due to the impact of inflation in Europe and the United States, the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank has been strengthened. These factors have led to the weakening of aluminum price support.

On the whole, the macro tightening has suppressed the aluminum price, but the reduction of aluminum supply and production and the relatively low inventory have supported the aluminum price. It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the future, we will focus on downstream consumption and social inventory.