441 # silicon price trend
| PVA 0599 (PVA BF05) |
In the past half month, the price of metal silicon has soared by about 4500 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.51% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 18, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic 331 # metal silicon is 22400 yuan / ton.
The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 22300-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin port is 22400-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 22000-22200 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 22000-22100 yuan / ton; Shanghai # 441 metal silicon price range is 23000-23100 yuan / ton.
The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of metal silicon are the high-temperature power shortage in Sichuan and the disturbance of the epidemic in Xinjiang. Xinjiang and Sichuan are the largest and third largest production areas of metal silicon in China. The production capacity of the main production areas in Xinjiang accounts for about 35%, and that of Sichuan accounts for about 20%. The two major production areas reduce production and increase production, driving the price of metal silicon to rise strongly.
High temperature power shortage in Sichuan
Due to the insufficient precipitation caused by the high temperature weather, Sichuan Province recently issued an emergency notice to stop the production of industrial power users in the whole province for 6 days in order to ensure the power consumption of the people. At present, the metal silicon enterprises have reduced the production in a large area, and it is unknown whether they can resume production on time in the future. Due to the tight power supply, the electricity price in Sichuan has increased by 0.02-0.05 yuan / kWh, and it is estimated that the production cost of RMB 00 / kWh will also increase by 280-7 tons. This power restriction will directly lead to a straight-line increase in costs and a contraction in supply, which will enhance the willingness of enterprises to support prices.
Xinjiang epidemic disturbance
The control situation in Xinjiang is becoming stricter. At present, many factories in Yili are under static management. It is understood that 7 silicon furnaces have been directly shut down due to the impact of the epidemic. In addition, the most direct impact during the epidemic period is the increase in transportation costs. It is expected that the average transportation costs will rise by about 10-20%. The raw material inventory of some silicon plants is insufficient, which has a great impact on subsequent production.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Downstream quotations follow the rise
The market price of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream area of organosilicon DMC is reference to 19720 yuan / ton. The fundamental reason for the price rise is the rise of metal silicon market. In the short term, it will follow the price rise of metal silicon. However, the focus of market transaction is not high, and the enterprise’s production enthusiasm is general.
The mainstream price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is about 18900-19100 yuan / ton. Some aluminum alloy users with low metal silicon inventory have made up orders in succession and have strong purchase intention under the stimulation of high prices.
The mainstream price of polysilicon is 294333.34 yuan / ton, and the domestic polysilicon operating rate remains low. In August, there were two enterprises overhauling their devices. At present, the number of devices involved in overhauling has increased to 5, and one of them has partially resumed work; In addition, the expansion of production capacity and stable production have made up for most of the production losses caused by maintenance. The supply remains tight and it is difficult to support the increase in demand for metal silicon.
Future forecast
At present, the two major production areas of metal silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan are subject to production restrictions to varying degrees, and many factors such as cost rise and output contraction are expected to further improve the price elasticity of metal silicon. However, considering that the downstream silicone and aluminum alloy enterprises generally maintain the state of just purchasing, the silicon price rises rapidly, and the fear of high in the downstream increases, it is expected that the short-term metal silicon price will maintain an upward trend, and then gradually slow down. In the future, attention should be paid to the power limitation in Sichuan.
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