1、 Price trend
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week. On August 5, the price of pure benzene was 8100-8300 yuan / ton (average price: 8317 yuan / ton), and on Friday (August 12), the price of pure benzene was 7950-8200 yuan / ton (average price: 8042 yuan / ton), with an average price of 3.31% lower than last week and an increase of 6.94% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Cost side: crude oil rose as a whole this week, which has certain support for pure benzene. Supply side: the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage are restarted in succession, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later stage. The import cargo increased, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 7000 tons to 31000 tons compared with last week. Demand side: most of the downstream units are in deficit, the unit shutdown decreases greatly, the operating rate decreases as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene weakens.
This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton.
On the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market this week mainly fell. On Thursday (August 11), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was US $953 / T, down US $40 / T year-on-year, down 4.03%; The import reference price in East China was 981 US dollars / ton, down 32 US dollars / ton or 3.16% year-on-year.
In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.
Downstream: styrene: this week, the styrene in Shandong fell sharply. The price was 9064 yuan / ton on August 5 and 8550 yuan / ton on August 12, down 5.67% from last week and 4.2% from the same period last year.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Aniline: this week, the aniline has softened by a wide margin. The raw material end continued to decline, the downstream maintained a rigid demand, and the aniline fundamentals became soft. The price of the company dropped several times during the week. On August 12, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10400-11200 yuan / ton, down 7.26% from last week and 2.31% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.
With the increase of the operating rate of the pure benzene unit and the increase of imported pure benzene in the later period, the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future. In addition, the downstream demand for pure benzene is relatively soft, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the pure benzene market is concentrated, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.
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