Overview of spot price trend of precious metals
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According to the data of business agency, on August 11, the average price of silver market in the early morning was 4474 yuan / kg, down 0.01% on a daily basis, up 0.93% from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1) of 4432.67 yuan / kg; Compared with the average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the decrease was 6.21%.
On August 11, the spot market price of gold was 388.99 yuan / g, down 0.52% on a daily basis, up 1.85% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.46%.
Comparison of price trends of precious metals (gold and silver) in recent 1 year
From the long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
Macro policy
1. Domestic policy
According to the data of the Central Bank of China, China’s gold reserves at the end of July were 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons), which was the same as last month.
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According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, in the first seven months of this year, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 13.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; Imports reached 10.23 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year.
2. International policy
After the quarterly adjustment in July, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 528000, the largest increase since February this year. The US unemployment rate in July recorded 3.5%, the lowest since February 2020. Us non farm data was better than expected.
Future forecast
Influenced by the geopolitical factors of China and the United States, the uncertainty caused by the US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in the early stage triggered the rise of risk aversion. The non-agricultural data of the United States in July was better than expected, the inflation expectation of American consumers was significantly reduced, the sentiment was high, and the price of precious metals rebounded rapidly. But San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daley said it was too early for the Federal Reserve to “declare victory” in the fight against high inflation. She did not rule out the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row at the next policy meeting in September, but she also hinted that she initially supported the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate increase, saying that the 0.5 percentage point increase in September was her basic position. The expected rise of interest rate hike has restrained the continuous upward movement of precious metal prices to a certain extent, and it is expected that the upward space of gold prices will narrow in the short term.
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