Overview of spot price trend of precious metals

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data of business agency, on August 9, the average price of the silver market in the early morning was 4499.33 yuan / kg, up 1.50% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1) of 4432.67 yuan / kg; Compared with the average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the decrease was 5.67%.

 

On August 9, the spot market price of gold was 389.57 yuan / g, up 2.00% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.62%.

 

Comparison of price trends of precious metals (gold and silver) in recent 1 year

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

From the long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

Macro policy

 

1. Domestic policy

 

According to the data of the Central Bank of China, China’s gold reserves at the end of July were 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons), which was the same as last month.

 

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, in the first seven months of this year, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 13.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; Imports reached 10.23 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year.

 

2. International policy

 

After the quarterly adjustment in July, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 528000, the largest increase since February this year. The US unemployment rate in July recorded 3.5%, the lowest since February 2020. Us non farm data was better than expected.

 

Future forecast

 

Influenced by the geopolitical factors of China and the United States, the uncertainty caused by the US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in the early stage triggered the rise of risk aversion. The non-agricultural data of the United States in July was better than expected, the inflation expectation of American consumers was significantly reduced, the sentiment was high, and the price of precious metals rebounded rapidly. On the Fed’s policy news, Chicago Fed chairman Evans said that he hoped to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in September, and then continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points until the beginning of the second quarter of 2023. San Francisco Fed chairman Daley said that the Fed’s fight against inflation is far from over, and officials are firmly committed to maintaining price stability. Cleveland Fed chairman mester said that the Fed still needs to see several months of evidence to prove that inflation has peaked before it can end the cycle of raising interest rates. In the short term, the price of precious metals may be strong under the support of sentiment in the uncertain factors.

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