1、 Price trend

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the price of pure benzene fell weakly this week. On July 29, the price of pure benzene was 8800-9000 yuan / ton (the average price was 8892 yuan / ton). On Friday (August 5), the price of pure benzene was 8100-8300 yuan / ton (the average price was 8317 yuan / ton). The average price was 6.47% lower than that of last week and 9.15% higher than that of the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 4000 tons, and the inventory is still tight. After filling the empty space at the end of the month, the speed of picking up goods at the downstream has slowed down significantly. In addition, most of the downstream have suffered losses, and the resistance to high price pure benzene has increased. The economic shutdown and maintenance have increased, and the demand for pure benzene has decreased. Due to poor downstream demand, Sinopec has lowered its listing price for many times, driving the market price down continuously.

 

This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 700 yuan / ton to 8150 yuan / ton (the price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong regions was reduced to 8150 yuan / ton).

 

On the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell by a wide margin this week. On Thursday (August 4), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $993 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $92 / T, a decrease of 8.48%; The import reference price in East China was US $1013 / T, with a year-on-year decrease of US $86 / T, or 7.83%.

 

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.

 

Downstream: styrene: this week, the styrene in Shandong continued to fall. The price was 9736 yuan / ton on July 29 and 9064 yuan / ton on August 5, down 6.9% from last week and up 0.71% from the same period last year.

 

Aniline: aniline fell slightly this week. On August 5, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11600 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from last week and up 4.67% from the same period last year.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

 

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the cost support is poor, the spot demand for styrene is continuously low, the inventory is rising, and the price of styrene is falling. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will fall.

 

Bad news: the trend of cost is unstable and the support for pure benzene market is insufficient. The downstream follow-up of pure benzene is poor, the shutdown maintenance is relatively concentrated, and the demand for pure benzene is reduced. The aromatics units of Qilu Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical were restarted, and the expected supply increment in the later period. Good news: the port inventory of pure benzene is low, and the short-term tight supply still supports the price of pure benzene. On the whole, the pure benzene market has concentrated bad news, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

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