441 * overview of silicon price trend

Silicon metal market fluctuated greatly in July, and the overall price rose. As of the 29th, the national quotation for metallic silicon was 17990 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from the beginning of the month. This month, there was a stalemate between the upper and lower levels. Downstream customers were in a heavy wait-and-see mood in purchasing on demand. The transaction performance improved in the middle of the month, but it was difficult to resist the decline caused by weak demand. Silicon prices fell again.

Market analysis

Cost aspect

In July, it was the peak period of power consumption, with power rationing in some regions of Sichuan and staggered peak rationing in Chongqing. The production cost of the silicon plant increases, but the silicon plant has a high acceptance of the increase in power cost, and the commencement is basically stable. The price of raw materials is still at a high level. It is speculated that the current domestic cost price of metallic silicon is 16000-17000 yuan / ton.

Inventory

As of July 29, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 106000 tons, and the overall social inventory increased by 21000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 165.0%. The inventory of Tianjin port increased due to the large amount of metal silicon delivered from Xinjiang production area; Huangpu port showed a full warehouse trend due to the accumulation of reservoirs during the wet season. Both social inventory data and factory inventory data of metallic silicon are higher than those in previous years, and the supply is relatively abundant.

Demand side

In July, the market price reference of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas was 20100 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the price of organosilicon stopped falling and rebounded, and the atmosphere of taking goods in the downstream market increased. At the same time, some manufacturers shut down their devices for maintenance, and the output of organosilicon fell, supporting the price rebound. The poor transaction situation in the silicone market, which rose in the middle of the month, forced some manufacturers to reduce their quotations, while the price of metallic silicon rose, resulting in the majority of silicone factories to digest their own inventory and reduce the purchase volume.

The market price of aluminum alloy shows a downward trend, with less demand for metallic silicon. The commencement of aluminum alloy enterprises is polarized, and the orders of small and medium-sized enterprises are less. There is a reduction in production, and the orders of leading enterprises are sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast

On the whole, the fluctuation of metal silicon price also depends on the recovery of demand. At present, the upstream and downstream continue to play a game. The silicon plant is obviously supported by costs, and its willingness to reduce quotation is not high. Downstream customers maintain rigid demand for procurement, and the price reduction is relatively obvious. The negative environment of sufficient supply and weak demand has exerted continuous pressure on the silicon plant, and it is expected that the silicon price will mainly operate weakly and stably in the future.