1、 Price trend
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According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell violently this week. On July 15, the price was 7990 yuan / ton, and on Friday (July 22), the price was 7730 yuan / ton, down 3.25% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 33.74%.
2、 Analysis and comment
As crude oil rose for three consecutive days, the cost side boosted the domestic market, and toluene prices rebounded slightly. However, due to sluggish domestic demand, the superimposed cost support is difficult to maintain, and the positive support is weakened. Toluene fell after rising with crude oil.
In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell violently this week. On Thursday (July 21), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $946 / ton, down $23 / ton year-on-year, or 2.37%.
In terms of crude oil, the market expressed doubts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to increase production, and tight supply is expected to support the rise of oil prices for three consecutive days. However, there were signs of weakening gasoline demand in the United States, which combined with the European Central Bank’s interest rate hike to suppress the economy, and oil prices fell. As of July 22, Brent’s price rose by $2.04 per barrel or 2.02% this week compared with last week; WTI fell $2.89 / barrel, or 2.96%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price was 17375 yuan / ton on July 15 and 16750 yuan / ton on July 22, down 3.6% from last week and up 10.44% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (July 22), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9550 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year. As of July 21, the closing price in Asia was $1030 / ton FOB South Korea and $1048 / ton CFR China.
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In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell violently this week. The price was 8787 yuan / ton on July 15 and 8606 yuan / ton on July 22, down 2.06% from last week and up 8.1% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the oil market has been stuck recently, and the expectation of oil supply shortage is still there. However, global inflation, the accelerated pace of interest rate hikes by central banks, and the increased risk of future economic recession have suppressed energy demand. Crude oil long short game, the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The support of external news was weak, and there was no good news on the demand side. In addition, in the later stage, new toluene production capacity entered the market, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the downward pressure increased. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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