According to the monitoring of business agency, the natural rubber commodity index was 35.54 on July 20, down 0.16 points from yesterday, down 64.46% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 30.28% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first and middle of July 2022

According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a continuous downward trend in the first and middle of July: the mainstream market in East China market reported about 12954 yuan / ton on the 1st, and the main market reported 11984 yuan / ton on the 20th, a decrease of 7.49%. Among them, the highest price point in the middle of the last month was 12954 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest price point was 11970 yuan / ton on the 15th, with the maximum amplitude of -7.6%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in recent March 2022

From the macro perspective of industrial analysis, in the first and middle of July, the trend of international crude oil showed a W-shape, and the current price was similar to that at the beginning of this month. Among them, the price of international crude oil futures continued to rise on the 20th. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $99.88 / barrel, down US $0.86 or 0.9%; The settlement price of the main contract of lunt crude oil futures was $106.92 / barrel, down $0.43 or 0.4%. Previously, affected by the macro dollar weakness, oil prices rose for three consecutive days, and the positive was gradually digested by the market. Oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday, mainly because data showed that gasoline fell during the peak driving season in the summer in the United States, and as the interest rate hike by central banks triggered market concerns about economic slowdown, demand uncertainty made oil prices deadlocked.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: the output of the global production area continues to increase rapidly, and the output of Thailand and Vietnam in the Southeast Asian production area continues to increase. With the rainfall in the southern part of Thailand, the total amount increases steadily, and the glue price weakens. The output of the Yunnan production area in China’s domestic area increases steadily. Due to the late opening of the Hainan production area, the current overall output is definitely reduced compared with previous years. From the perspective of the seasonal law of global output, it is expected to reach a comprehensive peak in August. Inventory: the current import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: affected by the high temperature weather, the operating rate of tire enterprises has generally declined. Statistics show that the operating rate of tire factories is about 50% to 70%. Data show that as of July 15, the operating load of all steel tires of Shandong tire company was 58.94%, an increase of 1.64% over last week and a decrease of 0.91% over the same period; The operating load of semi steel tire was 65.23%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points over last week and 8.85% over the same period. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire casings in China in June 2022 was 76.98 million, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year; In the first half of the year, the output of rubber tire casings decreased by 7.6% year-on-year to 417849 million. Although the automobile consumption policies are frequent and the downstream automobile production and sales are expected to be good, the existing inventory of finished tires is high, and enterprises are not very enthusiastic about the purchase of raw rubber. Inventory side: in terms of futures, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period increased slightly, and the inventory of No. 20 rubber decreased slightly; In terms of spot goods, it is reported that Qingdao free trade zone and general trade inventory have increased slightly, but the overall inventory is not high and the inventory pressure is not high. Import and export: China: in June 2022, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 16% over 462000 tons in the same period in 2021; From January to June 2022, China imported a total of 3.396 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.1% over 3.294 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Aftermarket forecast: the recent rainfall in the production area cannot prevent the supply pressure of the global natural rubber seasonal rubber production peak season. Superimposed on the latest natural rubber import data, the year-on-year increase and the continued high inventory of tire finished products, the current situation of weak demand from downstream manufacturers will continue. Although the strict control of public health events is conducive to economic development and the frequent occurrence of policies such as automobile consumption has a certain boost to the demand for rubber, the imbalance between the supply and demand of natural rubber spot has led to the continuous pressure on the future market of Tianjiao. It is expected that the natural rubber market will not improve in the third quarter, and there is a high possibility of sustained shocks at the 12000 level in the short term.