1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business news agency, pure benzene weakened with crude oil this week. On July 8, the price of pure benzene was 9200-9550 yuan / ton (average price 9267 yuan / ton), and on Friday (July 15), the price of pure benzene was 8600-9150 yuan / ton (average price 9009 yuan / ton). The average price was 2.79% lower than last week and 5.61% higher than the same period last year.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
2、 Analysis and comment
Affected by the broad decline of crude oil, pure benzene in the external market followed the weakness, driving the focus of negotiation in the domestic market down. During the week, the turnover in Shandong was general, and the price difference with other regions widened. Due to the reduction of domestic trade ships, the inventory of East China ports this week decreased by 8000 tons compared with last week, and the market supply was relatively tight, with a limited overall decline during the week.
This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 9150 yuan / ton (the price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong was reduced to 8950 yuan / ton).
In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene continued its broad decline this week. On Thursday (July 14), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1039 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $86 / ton, or 7.64%; The reference import price in East China was $1095 / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of $67 / ton, or 5.77%.
In terms of crude oil, the global economic growth slowed down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rose, and bad news dominated the impact. Crude oil fell again broadly, and oil distribution and US oil fell below US $100 a barrel during the week. As of July 15, Brent’s price fell by $5.86 per barrel, or 5.48%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $7.2 / barrel, or 6.87%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell violently in Shandong this week. On July 8, the price was 10550 yuan / ton, and on July 15, the price was 10351 yuan / ton, which was 1.88% higher than that of county roads last week and 11.16% higher than that of the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline was sorted down in a narrow range this week. On July 15, the price in Shandong was 11800-12100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12100-12500 yuan / ton, down 0.21% from last week and up 26.05% from the same period last year.
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3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product, will be gradually started. Styrene plants such as Haiwan, Wanhua, Dushanzi and Hengli are expected to increase the circulating supply of styrene.
Due to tight supply, the price of pure benzene is still supported in the short term. If crude oil and the external market continue to fall, pure benzene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.
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