1、 Price trend
Toluene fell continuously this week, according to the data on the bulk list of business society. On July 1, the price was 8900 yuan / ton, and on Friday (July 8), the price was 8640 yuan / ton, down 2.92% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 47.19%.
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2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the decline of toluene export arbitrage enthusiasm and weak domestic demand, toluene Market negotiation is general and inventory accumulation. During the week, crude oil plummeted, driving the collective decline of bulk commodities. Toluene in the outer market followed a wide range of decline, which was lack of good news, and toluene was under pressure.
In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (July 7), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1104 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $106 / ton, or 8.76%.
In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell narrowly this week. The price was 17625 yuan / ton on July 1 and 17475 yuan / ton on July 8, down 0.85% from last week and up 26.02% from the same period last year. At present, the spot stock of the factory is tight, the mentality of supporting the market is dominant, the downstream demand continues to be light, and some just need to purchase and follow up, so the enthusiasm to enter the market is not good.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (July 8), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 40.85% compared with the same period last year. As of July 7, the closing price in Asia was $1162 / ton FOB South Korea and $1180 / ton CFR China.
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In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell violently this week. The price was 9092 yuan / ton on July 1 and 9015 yuan / ton on July 8, down 0.85% from last week and up 13.01% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and toluene in the outer market is still likely to fall; Domestic downstream demand for high priced toluene is poor, and the market follows up cautiously, and toluene is still likely to fall. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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