Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell in the previous week, and the spot prices of various brands gradually decreased. As of July 4, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13000 yuan / ton, up or down -1.52% compared with the price level at the beginning of the week.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded last week. Although the macro performance of styrene was weak before, the superposition of international crude oil fluctuations had a negative impact on styrene. However, last week, the port inventory was digested, the operating rate of the industry decreased, and the overall market situation warmed up. At present, the price of direct upstream pure benzene is stable and bottoms out at the cost end of styrene. It is expected that the market of styrene may be in a stalemate in the short term, mainly with narrow adjustment.

The price of acrylonitrile was mainly deadlocked last week, the load of domestic acrylonitrile enterprises was still high, and the pressure on acrylonitrile supply remained. Demand tends to be lagging and weak, and there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. However, the current acrylonitrile price is at a low level, and there is limited room for market price decline under cost pressure. Although the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is difficult to change, it is expected that the acrylonitrile price may continue to run sideways at a low level in the later period.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market fell broadly. Affected by the increase in export sales of northeast sources and the news of the restart of devices in Shandong, the market expectation was short, the transaction was not smooth, dragging the supplier’s price downward, and the market fell. At the same time, the performance of downstream products is weak, high price transactions are rare, and the market trading volume has returned to a depressed state. Most downstream products are cautious.

Last week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a poor trend. Previously, the price fluctuation of international crude oil was intensified due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, which was bad for the oil and chemical industry chain, and the cost support of ABS both far and near weakened. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, and the pattern of weak market demand is gradually unfolding. Merchants give up profits and lower the focus of ABS offer.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.