1、 Price data

According to the data of business news agency, as of June 29, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6650.00 yuan / ton, up 3.16% from 6446.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On June 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.68, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 0.75% from 135.70 points (2022-06-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 192.27% from 46.08 points, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic fuel oil 180CST price rose this month, and the domestic marine oil raw material price fell after rising. The overall high level supported the fuel oil 180CST cost. According to the business news agency, as of June 29, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6650 yuan / ton and 6750 yuan / ton respectively; The price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6650 yuan / ton.

In June, the international crude oil price fluctuated. In early June, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices, and crude oil prices rise. In late June, the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. At the end of June, crude oil futures closed up for three consecutive days, hitting a two-week high, as the market questioned the ability of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production significantly, as well as the supply concerns caused by the turmoil in Ecuador and Libya.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 22, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil, increased by 1154000 barrels to 21348000 barrels; The inventory of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate decreased by 600000 barrels to 15212000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate increased by 652000 barrels to 8.61 million barrels. In May, the sales volume of marine fuel in Singapore was 4.12 million tons, the highest in five months, an increase of 10% over that in April.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

At the end of June, the international crude oil price rebounded, which boosted the domestic ship fuel market. However, the market terminal demand was general, and the receiving of goods was limited. The overall market transaction was light, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6700 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.