1、 Price trend
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, mixed xylene continued its decline this week, and the price fell broadly. On June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton; On Friday (June 24), the price was 8270 yuan / ton, down 6.45% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 40.65%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil fell, and the external mixed xylene rebounded after last week’s sharp decline, but the external news was generally short. The domestic mixed xylene market negotiation has weakened, the downstream PX market is poor, the terminal gasoline has fallen continuously, the weak demand has dragged down the price, and the market focus has returned to the demand side.
In the external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia rebounded this week. On Thursday (June 23), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $1277 / ton, a year-on-year increase of $30 / ton, or 2.41%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $1227 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of $30 / ton, or 2.51%.
In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.
On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 67.69% compared with the same period last year. As of the 23rd, the closing price in Asia was USD 1275 / T FOB Korea and USD 1293 / T CFR China
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In the ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the price of ox in East China was 9300 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 50% compared with the same period last year. The performance of the industrial chain was weak, and the price of orthobenzene was temporarily stable during the week.
In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price in Shandong fell violently this week. On June 17, the price was 9516.8 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 9157 yuan / ton, down 3.78% from last week and up 15.57% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.
The crude oil trend is full of uncertainty, and the external market lacks good guidance. The trend of domestic mixed xylene returns to the demand side, and the downstream has insufficient enthusiasm to follow up the high priced mixed xylene. It is expected that the mixed xylene may still fall. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on mixed xylene prices.
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