In June, after the aluminum price broke 20000 yuan, it stopped falling and stabilized to rise
| PVA 2088 (PVA BP20) |
According to the data of business agency, on June 16, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20170 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 0.43%, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the average market price of 20206.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (6.1), and an increase of 7% compared with the average market price of 18800 yuan / ton in the same period last year.
Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 16.79%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 7.90% recently.
Introduction to aluminum ingot fundamentals in June
1. acceleration of social inventory of aluminum ingots
At present, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has been in the range of 900000-980000 tons in May, which has been largely removed. As of the 16th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 808000 tons, down 102000 tons from 910000 tons at the beginning of the month.
2. domestic aluminum production data
In May, the added value of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 3.9% year-on-year; In May, the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 5.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From January to may, the cumulative output was 27.25 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. From January to may, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 16.4 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.3%
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
3. macro policy information
In June, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced an interest rate increase of 75 basis points, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 1.5% to 1.75%, and it is expected that it will be appropriate to continue to raise the target range. This is the largest increase in the past three decades since 1994, and the interest rate will be raised to the high level before the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020. At the same time, the Federal Reserve decided that the committee would continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds, institutional bonds and institutional mortgage-backed securities.
Aftermarket forecast
The news of interest rate increase was bad for the non-ferrous metal market. The news in the early stage was basically digested. After the bad news was realized, the non-ferrous metal price began to build a bottom and recover.
The domestic transportation conditions have gradually improved, the market circulation has begun to return to normality, the downstream consumer demand has a rising momentum, the spot trading of Foshan, Wuxi and Gongyi, the three mainstream consumer places, has risen, and the willingness of the downstream to replenish inventory is increasing. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will be strong in the short term.
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