1、 Price data

As of June 12, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8935.75 yuan / ton, up 4.96% from 8513.25 yuan / ton on June 6. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8900-9000 yuan / ton.

As of June 12, the average ex factory price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8763.33 yuan / ton, up 4.61% from 8377.50 yuan / ton on June 6. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8600-8800 yuan / ton.

On June 12, the naphtha commodity index was 110.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.34% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 161.08% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to rise, and refineries actively pushed it up. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal just needed replenishment, and the market transaction was positive.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. At present, it is in the peak season of traditional consumption of crude oil, and it is also a season of high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes. Crude oil has a great tendency to hit a new high again, and the rise of international oil prices is unabated.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene rose strongly this week, with a one-day increase of more than 5%. On June 2, the price was 8160 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the price was 9230 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.11% over last week. Mixed xylene rose continuously this week, with an increase of more than 10% within the week. On June 2, the price was 8220 yuan / ton; On June 10, the price was 9180 yuan / ton, up 11.68% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10600 yuan / ton, up 3.92% from the price of 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 63.08% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the price of international crude oil is rising, the cost of naphtha market is supported, the terminal just needs replenishment after the Dragon Boat Festival, the refinery is actively pushing up, the profit of reforming unit is good, and the price of gasoline is rising continuously, but the terminal demand is not significantly good. It is expected that the recent refining of naphtha will be dominated by consolidation.