1、 Price trend
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose continuously this week, with an increase of more than 10% within the week. On June 2, the price was 8220 yuan / ton; On Friday (June 10), the price was 9180 yuan / ton, up 11.68% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 56.39%.
2、 Analysis and comment
The recent strong trend of crude oil has given positive support to related bulk commodities. In addition, with the arrival of the peak gasoline demand season in the United States, a large number of toluene and xylene are required to invest in gasoline components to reduce the consumption of disproportionation devices. The price of American gold plate is rising, and the mixed xylene in Asia is actively rising. Although the export arbitrage of domestic mixed xylene is limited, the external news support is strong, and the domestic speculation enthusiasm is high. At the same time, the domestic PX demand support and the gasoline market improved, and the price of mixed xylene rose.
In the external market, the mixed xylene in Asia in the external market rose by more than 15% this week. On Thursday (June 9), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was USD 1496 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of USD 209 / ton, or 16.24%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 1446 / T, with a year-on-year increase of USD 192 / T, or 15.31%.
In terms of crude oil, due to the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, driving demand growth, as well as the tightening of supply expectations under the background of Western sanctions against Russia, this week’s rise was dominated. As of June 10, Brent rose $2.29 per barrel, or 1.91%; WTI rose $1.8/barrel, or 1.51%.
Downstream, in the PX market, domestic PX rose this week. On Friday (June 10), the ex factory price of domestic paraxylene was 10600 yuan / ton, up 3.92% from last week and 63.08% from the same period last year. On June 9, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was USD 1481 / T FOB Korea and USD 1499 / T CFR China.
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In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (June 10), the price of ox in East China was 8800 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week, up 41.94% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong rose continuously this week. On June 2, the price was 8980 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the price was 9485.2 yuan / ton, up 5.63% from last week and 22.45% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the short-term oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. Supply tightening expectations and demand growth support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.
At present, the external news support is strong, the downstream market is good, and the short-term trend of mixed xylene is strong. However, near the weekend, the price of mixed xylene in the external market fell, the domestic market fell slightly, and the mentality of bearish operators continued to rise slightly. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on mixed xylene prices.
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