1、 Price trend
Toluene rose by a wide margin this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. The price was 7540 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7860 yuan / ton on Friday (May 20), up 4.24% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31.96%.
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2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the strong demand for gasoline in the United States and the continuous rise of toluene prices in the US gold plate, South Korea’s domestic toluene exports turned to the United States for arbitrage, and domestic toluene exports increased. Toluene in East China ports rose continuously, while negotiations in other regions were general, mainly following the rise.
In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia continued to rise this week. On Thursday (May 19), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1066 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $8 / ton, or 0.76%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil surged this week. As of May 20, Brent rose $1 / barrel, or 0.9%; WTI rose $2.74/barrel, or 2.48%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. The price was 17250 yuan / ton on May 13 and 17025 yuan / ton on May 20, down 1.3% from last week and up 21.61% from the same period last year.
In terms of PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (May 20), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from last week and 54.69% from the same period last year. On May 19, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was 1254 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 1272 US dollars / ton CFR China.
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In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell this week. The price was 8618 yuan / ton on May 13 and 8520.8 yuan / ton on May 20, down 1.13% from last week and up 11.64% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, in the short term, under the uncertain situation in Russia and Ukraine, the oil price continued to run at a high level. However, under the expectation of substantial interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, it may drag down the price of crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The short-term crude oil and external prices are high, and the export of toluene continues to support the domestic market. It is expected that toluene will run stronger. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, the domestic gasoline market, the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices, etc.
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