According to the data of business agency, on April 27, the average early price of silver market was 4958 yuan / kg, down 0.57%, down 0.95% from the average early price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.94%.
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On April 27, the spot market price of gold was 400.62 yuan / g, with a daily increase of 0.08%, up 1.43% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 7.59%.
Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
List of policies
1. Domestic news
The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo of 10 billion yuan on the 27th, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, the same as before. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, zero delivery and zero return were realized on the same day.
2. International news
According to CME’s “fed observation”: the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 2.9%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 97.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 0%; By June, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 25 and 50 basis points is 0%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 75 basis points is 0.5%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 19.1%, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 80.4%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 150 basis points is 0%.
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The monetary Committee of the Central Bank of Hungary announced an interest rate increase of 100 basis points on April 26, raising the country’s benchmark interest rate from 4.4% to 5.4%.
The Central Bank of Brazil raised Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2022 from 7.1% to 7.65% in the financial market forecast report on major economic indicators released on April 26. Financial markets generally believe that, as the main means to deal with inflation, the Central Bank of Brazil will raise the current annual benchmark interest rate of 11.75% to 13.25% by the end of 2022. In addition, the report also raised Brazil’s GDP growth forecast this year to 0.65% from 0.5% at the end of March.
Future forecast
In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward space of precious metal prices has been suppressed.
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