The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 25 was 36.36, down 0.95 points from yesterday, down 63.64% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 33.28% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since April 2022
The monitoring shows that since April, the domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market has continued to fluctuate and decline. On the 1st, the mainstream market reported about 13110 yuan / ton, and on the 25th, it reported 12260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.48%; Among them, since the mainstream market since this month is generally in a downward trend, the highest price point is 13110 yuan / ton on the 1st, and the lowest price point is 12260 yuan / ton on the 25th, with a maximum amplitude of 6.48%.
Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since April 2022
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Macro analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil futures prices fell first, then rose, and then decreased slightly. On the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at US $102.07/barrel, down US $1.72 or 1.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $106.15/barrel, down US $1.10 or 1.0%. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations and limiting the decline in oil prices.
Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since April 2022
Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: according to the latest ANRPC report, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons in March; Among the production areas, India and Yunnan have fully opened cutting and increased production. Hainan has opened cutting at the end of April and early May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around mid May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by the recent public health events in China, and the local short-distance transportation in some provinces and cities has improved. It is reported that the operating rate of some tire enterprises in Shandong has rebounded for a short time. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to a document issued by the Federation of passenger cars, the national passenger car market was affected by the downturn in consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. Inventory: in the previous period, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures in the week of 22nd increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.
Recent industry hot spots: 1. According to the latest report released by LMC automotive, the global sales of light vehicles decreased by 14% to 7.2 million in March 2022. The US market continues to face tight inventories and high vehicle transaction prices. Despite the impact of the epidemic blockade measures and the deterioration of the global market outlook, the sales volume in the Chinese market remains strong to some extent. The seasonally adjusted annual sales volume decreased to 75 million vehicles / year, and the average seasonally adjusted annual sales volume in the first quarter was 79 million vehicles / year. Global supply chain problems still limit the sales performance.
2. According to the document issued by the passenger Federation on April 19, the national passenger car market will be affected by the downturn of consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected. Among them, the sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles was 3.85 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles was 1.07 million, a year-on-year increase of 146.6%, forming a K-shaped trend in the sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. About the prospect of the national passenger car market in the second quarter: the temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic is huge, and the impact of the supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter.
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3. According to the latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA), the sales of passenger cars in the EU fell by 20.5% year-on-year to 844187 in March. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the continuous interruption of the supply chain and had a negative impact on automobile production. As a result, sales in most countries in the region recorded double-digit declines, including four major markets: Spain (- 30.2%), Italy (- 29.7%), France (- 19.5%) and Germany (- 17.5%). In the first quarter of 2022, the sales volume of passenger cars in EU decreased by 12.3% year-on-year to 2.25 million. All four major markets in the EU experienced declines: Italy (- 24.4%), France (- 17.3%), Spain (- 11.6%) and Germany (- 4.6%).
4. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire casings in China in March 2022 was 81.263 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. From January to March, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 3.7% over the same period of last year to 206.323 million.
5. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2022, down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.
6. The latest March report released by ANRPC predicts that in 2022, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 14.292 million tons. In March, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons. In the first quarter, the global output of natural rubber is expected to decrease by 1.1% to 3.186 million tons; In 2022, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year to 14.643 million tons. In March, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% to 1.288 million tons. In the first quarter, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decrease by 0.8% to 3.549 million tons.
Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.
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