Data monitoring shows that the polyacrylamide commodity index on April 24 was 97.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.64% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.52% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that on April 24, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market was about 15942.86 yuan / ton, up 3.3% year-on-year. The production of the enterprise is relatively normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the transaction is greatly affected by transportation capacity and cost, and the shipment pressure of enterprises is doubled; The transportation environment and demand situation are still severe, and the recent market of polyacrylamide has remained stable.

Key point analysis: at present, the inventory of manufacturers in the main production area is relatively sufficient and the demand is normal, but at the moment of strict control of public health events, the downstream demand is weak, and the cost of delivery and transportation of raw materials and finished products is greatly increased and difficult, so the transaction is very affected.

The raw material acrylonitrile, after being lowered by 50 yuan / ton last Friday, was again slightly lowered by 50 yuan / ton this Monday. The main market report was 11500-11560 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable. The domestic acrylonitrile units such as Haijiang and kruer in Shandong continued to shut down. The domestic acrylonitrile industry started around 70%, the downstream demand was weak, and the market offer was slightly lower. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile in the later stage will be dominated by shock consolidation.

The market of raw acrylic acid increased this week. On April 22, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 3.39% from 13766.67 yuan / ton on Monday (18th). Recently, the raw material market has been shaken and sorted out, and the cost support is OK. The manufacturer’s equipment has been shut down for maintenance, the market supply has decreased, the downstream demand has improved, the enterprise sales are not under pressure, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the tight supply has supported the steady rise of acrylic acid price.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 6980 yuan / ton on April 22, up 176 yuan / ton, or 2.59%, compared with 6840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 125.89% compared with the same period last year. At the beginning of the week, with the improvement of local logistics and transportation, the shipping atmosphere of liquid plants improved, and the price continued to rise above 7000 yuan, close to the cost line. However, the rise continued for a short time. Affected by negative factors such as the decline of inlet gas price, the weakening of off-season demand and the reduction of feed gas price, the domestic gas fell steadily in the middle and late of the week, and the price of imported gas also fell; At present, the demand is declining, the domestic liquid price is declining steadily, and there is only one week left from the May Day holiday. The shipment psychology of the liquid factory is obvious, and there is still downward expectation.

Future forecast: affected by the strict control of public health events, the problem of blocked market delivery and transportation will continue in the short term; Although the cost of raw materials fell slightly, the fuel price rose, the spot inventory in the market was sufficient, and the demand and transaction slowed down; The polyacrylamide market is expected to remain stable in the future, supplemented by small fluctuations.